Sunday, October 4, 2015

Climate Change and Megastorms. I told you so.

This is a misleading headline because the cold blob shouldn't be puzzling to scientists.

Cold Atlantic "Blob" Puzzles Scientists 

(CNN)At first glance, it stands out like a sore thumb. That blob of blue and purple on the map. One of the only places on the globe that is abnormally cold in a year that will likely shatter records as the warmest globally.
It's being called the Atlantic "blob." It's a large area in the North Atlantic that is seeing a pronounced cooling trend. The ocean surface is much cooler than normal and in fact record cold in some locations.
The mysterious cold blob is evidence that the traditional prevailing ocean current formerly known as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt has been disrupted by the effects of our warming climate.  Just like NASA scientists predicted back in 2004 and others before that. 

A Chilling Possibility: By disturbing a massive ocean current, melting Arctic sea ice might trigger colder weather in Europe and North America.

March 5, 2004: Global warming could plunge North America and Western Europe into a deep freeze, possibly within only a few decades.
That's the paradoxical scenario gaining credibility among many climate scientists. The thawing of sea ice covering the Arctic could disturb or even halt large currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Without the vast heat that these ocean currents deliver--comparable to the power generation of a million nuclear power plants--Europe's average temperature would likely drop 5 to 10°C (9 to 18°F), and parts of eastern North America would be chilled somewhat less. Such a dip in temperature would be similar to global average temperatures toward the end of the last ice age roughly 20,000 years ago.

More heat energy from the sun lands at the earth's equatorial regions than lands at the earth's poles. The heat energy has to somehow migrate away from the equator toward the poles either within ocean currents or through air currents.  So assume that the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt has been disrupted just like the cold blob indicates and that the excess heat from the equatorial region is being forced to migrate away from the equator toward the poles through currents in the atmosphere, or wind instead of through ocean currents.

Heat energy or enthalpy exists in the atmosphere in two forms.  One is the sensible heat, the temperature of the air that you could measure with a thermometer in degrees F or C.  The other form of energy in the atmosphere is the latent heat, the water vapor absorbed in the air, that you could measure with a hygrometer in % Relative Humidity.  The warmer air becomes the more water vapor it can absorb and the capacity to carry moisture increases exponentially as air warms.  See: Psychrometric Chart.  Hot humid air stores more energy than hot dry air but whatever amount of moisture is absorbed into the air in one location will eventually fall back to the ground as precipitation somewhere else.

Here is a Pathteacher post from the archives 2012 about the interaction of temperature and humidity in the atmosphere and how the Psychrometric Chart predicts the major weather trends we can expect in our warming climate.

Pathteacher: This chart explains why we can expect more extreme weather

I think it is reasonable to say the amount of precipitation will tend to decrease in areas where the atmosphere is typically the warmest and the amount of precipitation will tend to increase in areas where the air is the typically the coolest. We will see more persistent droughts, more intense wildfires and growing deserts in hotter areas and an increasing number of random Megastorms that dump huge amounts of precipitation causing flooding, property damage, crop losses and infrastructure failures in cooler areas. This doesn't bode well for the agriculture or property insurance industries, or for our prospects in general.       

Which brings me to an image of the storms currently pounding the Atlantic Coast in the Southern USA.  This is a massive storm being described as the largest storm in the area in 1,000 years and the rain that has fallen over a foot deep in many places is causing catastrophic damage over a wide area. Yes, there have been massive storms in the past, but as the global climate continues to warm, the rate of incidence and destructive power of the massive, catastrophic, Megastorms like this one will increase.  

Get used to it.  This is the future we have chosen, or at least ignored as a real threat.  A typical climate denier might say this is all just business as usual or point out how the climate changed before there were 7 billion people on Earth or recite end-times prophecy, or maybe even admit that climate denial is an easier alternative to admitting they don't give a shit about the world their children and grandchildren will inherit.  But none of that matters anymore because climate change is happening right now and I plan to keep reminding people I told you so.

Monday, August 10, 2015

Scrooge McTrump vs all the other ducks

If the GOP leadership really wants Donald Trump left out out of their 2016 Presidential primary elections then they are going to have to forcibly restrain him with Lilliputian tactics.  The GOP base is comprised of a million tiny people who post about conservative values anonymously of course in the reader comment sections and they are prepared to tie down the Donald and his hair to the ground while he sleeps. But the Donald doesn't actually sleep and if the Lilliputians try to tie him down he will just hire undocumented workers from nearby Islands to chop away at those tiny ropes and after becoming a free man again, Gulliver Trump will be inspired to run as a 3rd party candidate just to spite the GOP leaders and to show deference and respect to HRC in return for future business / banking / foreign policy considerations.  Assuming this is all true (which of course it will be or my name isn't Abernathy P. Duckling)  the biggest question left is:

1. What will Donald Trump call his 3rd party?

a)  American Eagle Party
b)  Liberty for All Party
c)  True Patriot Party
d)  Unity Party
e)  TRiUMPh! Party

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Spectacular photo from the Pacific coast of South Africa

I took this photo in 2012 during a work trip to Port Elizabeth on a Sunday side trip with my American host.  I have thought about this and other amazing sights along with the wonderful people I met while was there just about every day since.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Detroit Graffiti Art

Here are some examples of Detroit's world class graffiti artwork painted on buildings along Grand River near Canfield a couple miles from downtown.   In Detroit you can paint a whole building and people are like... Cool, do more!

And the taco truck of course..  

Monday, March 9, 2015

An easy to remember pattern for the digit sum of any multiple of 10.

If for whatever reason you ever need to know the sum of all the integers from 1 up any number at all, you can take the time to add them all up manually or figure out an easier way to arrive at the answer.  In the table below multiples of 10 are matched to the sum of all the numbers from 0 up to that multiple of 10.   Do you see the pattern?

   Multiple of 10         Sum of numbers from 0 up to X                      
          1                                      1
         10                                    55                                    
        100                                 5050                                  
       1000                              500500                              
      10000                            50005000                        
     100000                         5000050000                    
    1000000                      500000500000                  

This is a great example of why you need to think about a math problem before actually diving into the math.

If you were asked to add up all the numbers from 1+2+3+4 all the way to 10 you would likely either add it up in your head or maybe use a pen and paper and arrive at the answer 55.  That's easy enough, not too much thinking required, just plug and chug.

But the same problem is not so easy for adding up the numbers between 1 and 100.  Here is where the lazy and bright might figure out that to add up the numbers between 0 and 100 they could just add 0+100, 1+99, 2+98, 3+97, 4+96,.. etc,.. 49+51 and the answer would be 50 ways to add up to 100 with 50 in the middle leftover or 5,050.

So then the pattern is this, 50+50 is 100 and 5,050 is the sum of all the digits from 1 to 100. The same pattern predicts that the digit sum of 1,000 is 500,500.

This then leads to an easy way to calculate the sum of integers from 0 up the number itself.

The sum of all numbers from 1 to X = (X*X+X)/2

I hope you get to use that little math trick someday.

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Epic Facebook comment from someone I barely know.

Jose Valargowitzkowski  I never surrender to libs jim. And you still havent answered my question about what you are going to do to save the planet. Liberals never address the points of others, only call them fools. You should be better than that. Let me tell you about poverty and third world living. My wife is from the philippines. When we me her mother was living in a one room hovel partially destroyed by fire. Her most valued possession was a thermos bottle. Thanks to tge good fortune weve enjoyed we were able to build her a home. She has running water so she doesnt have to go to the village pump and lug buckets uphill, which aint easy for an 80 year old 90 pound woman. Sge has a refrigerator. She has a fan. She has a two burner propane stove so she doesnt gave to cook over open charcoal. 
She can actually live like a human being and enjoy the basics of life you take for granted. Now you tell her and 100 million other filioinos, 100 million vietnamese, 500 million central and south anericans, 1.2 billion chicoms, 1 billion indians and 2 billion africabs who are finally veginning to enjoy basic creature comforts they cant because earths temp may rise half a degree in a century. Tell them please. How dare you! While you sit in 70 degree air conditioned comfirt in summer and 75 degree heat in winter. Liberals are always touting how much they love the poor but advocate policies to keep them in crushing poverty. Abd dont spout off about alternative fuels. Thats a luxury anerican livs prattle about. Fossil fuels power the third when you ezoerience that kind of poverty please write about it in your blog. Tell me how comfortabke it is to live in 95 degree 100 percent humidity all the freaking time. It is amazing how white western libs enjoy telling nonwhite asians, africans and latinos how to live from the comfort of their modern american homes. I dont give a damn if the worlds temp goes up by 10 degrees if it means poor folks enjoy a measure of decent living. To deny them this confort is unchristian, unamerican and wrong. Pardon the tyoes. u use one finger to type. But as a smart and enlightened liveral i trust you will get the message. Peace. Out