Monday, January 19, 2015

From the "I told you so" file in the Pathteacher archives

A couple years ago in January 2013, I looked into the headlines of the day and saw the oil glut building.  I was off on how soon the glut would arrive and bring the steep drop in prices, but I was pretty sure it was coming. This is a good example of how underlying trends for supply and demand determine where a market is headed, not any special algorithms for deciphering the day to day up and down flocktuations of the market from the herd of traders trying to make money on the noise.  

First, here is a 5-year trend for the price of crude oil.  The article was written in January 2013 when oil was hovering around $110 per barrel.

From the Archives:    In 2013 economic growth will be fueled by lower oil prices. 

" There are many factors that affect economic growth and among them is the price of oil.  Like it or not oil and gasoline are still the lifeblood of our economy.  The price of oil and gasoline are baked into the price of every consumer product on the shelves. Further, the more disposable income that consumers spend on gasoline, the less they will have to spend on other things.  
Cheaper gasoline will help promote economic recovery in the USA.  Cheap gasoline is a free market induced stimulus package for everyone. 
Here are a few different articles that help paint the picture of where the prices of oil and gasoline are heading in the USA... 
After linking to a few news stories about change in the supply and demand for the oil I wrote..  
 ..It is important to note that we are not just producing more oil here in the USA, we are also using less of it as well.  A glut in the market is not out of the question and if and when that happens we will see a substantial drop in oil prices.  The fools who warned the world that oil was headed for $200 per barrel failed to acknowledge that before the price could climb that high, the world economy would collapse and Exxon would find it difficult to give oil away.
 Those pesky self-correction factors..
Someday I may have enough confidence in my predictions to actually invest in my own recommendations.

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Pictures from Trip to NYC late December 2014

Just some random pictures from our quick jaunt to Manhattan late December 2014.  I would love to totally relocate there if there was a feasible way to make it happen.  Having grown up, lived and worked in and around Detroit my whole life, there is something about NY that makes me feel right at home the minute I wave farewell to the car after giving the keys to the valet at the hotel.

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Friday, November 14, 2014

Forget Ebola get out of Brazil now.

"...  South America’s largest city, São Paulo, Brazil, is experiencing a severe water crisis. A record drought and high water demand from the growing city have severely depleted São Paulo’s main reservoir, forcing the president of Brazil’s Water Regulatory Agency to warn citizens that the city might face a “collapse like we’ve never seen before”.
The drought, the worst the city has seen in 80 years, is directly linked to deforestation in the Amazon rainforest and Atlantic forest, according to leading climatologist Dr. Antonio Nobre of the National Institute for Atmospheric Research. Rainforests produce large amounts of vapor that bring rainclouds further inland, providing much-needed water to many areas of the country.
“If deforestation in the Amazon continues,” Nobre told the BBC, “São Paulo will probably dry up.

Friday, November 7, 2014

A pattern in a series of transients?

US Federal Deficit 
Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate
Unemployment Rate
Personal bankruptcy filings
US New Home Sales
Spot Oil Price; West Texas Intermediate
Price of Gold and Silver 


Saturday, September 20, 2014

Friday Night Lights

It was a spectacular night in Southeast Michigan to catch an exciting high school football game and get to watch an awesome marching band perform for the homecoming crowd at halftime.  Just a few years ago my son was quarterback of the team, now he is a college student with a part time job as assistant coach.  Go Dragons.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Chicago's Bril Barrett in HuffPo and the Studio..

Nice article about Bril Barrett in HuffPo today.
This Man Has Mad Rhythm, And His Love For Tap Dancing And Community Speaks Volumes

Bril is a great guy, an amazing tap dancer, a friend to everyone he meets a real leader and an inspiration to many.  I've known him for a few years thanks to my daughter's love for tap dancing.   

Bril was in Detroit a couple weeks ago for the Motor City Tapfest where he taught classes to rooms full of tappers young and old in the Old Main Building at Wayne State and he showed off his M.A.D.D. rhythm skills during improv sessions and while performing at the Motor City Soles show at Orchestra Hall last Saturday evening.

Old Main on the campus of Wayne State University in Detroit Michigan
Bril and Molly in Chicago in August 2014
So I thought I would post a couple videos. The first is from a choreography session at the Harold Washington Community Center in Chicago a couple years ago.


And here is Molly performing that solo for the instructors at the Motor City Tapfest a couple weeks ago. Bril is sitting in the front row.   This was the first time Bril saw Molly perform the solo he taught her.

Molly's Solo at Motor City Tapfest

I hope a lot of good things happen for Bril and his family and his M.A.D.D Rhythms tap crew.