Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Rick Perry's poll numbers and inflection points

So I read today that Texas Governor and GOP Presidential candidate Rick Perry is leading the polls. IBT: Rick Perry Beats Mitt Romney in Gallup Poll, One Week After Entering Race
Texas Gov. Rick Perry moved decisively into the lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a Gallup poll released Wednesday.

The poll, conducted Aug. 17-21, showed Perry supported by 29 percent of Republican primary voters, 12 points ahead of Mitt Romney's 17 percent.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Rep. Ron Paul came in at 10 percent, with businessman Herman Cain receiving 4 percent and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each receiving 3 percent.

Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, who has tried to carve out a niche as a moderate candidate willing to work with ideological opponents, continued to trail the pack with 1 percent of the vote, underscoring how conservative the Republican electorate has become.
Although Rick Perry has been a very public GOPer for a number of years now, he is an official newcomer to this race. In my opinion the fact that he entered the race at the top is not all that surprising seeing as the rest of the field is comprised of Tea Party kooks (Paul, Bachman), GOP retreads (Romney, Santorum, Gingrich) and heretofore unknowns ( Huntsman, Cain) and most the people who responded to the poll just want someone/anyone to unseat President Obama. Although I doubt it, Perry may even go as far as to win the GOP nomination, but if he does, it will be for naught.  He has zero chance of winning the Presidency.  Americans are gullible, but they aren't dumb.

Perry is an anti-science creationist who believes in the story of Noah's Ark and that evolution is a hoax. He is a homophobe who has compared gays to alcoholics who need rehab. He is a staunch opponent of reproductive rights for women and an opponent of assistance for poor mothers as well.  He claims to subscribe to Christianity but has executed more prisoners than anyone else in the free world. He spouts anti-Fed Tea Party BS to placate the sub-intelligent base who apparently long for an American economic meltdown .  He speaks in code to the racists in his party.  He used his powers as Governor of Texas to subsidize businessmen who donated to his political campaigns. His record on education in Texas is abysmal and should be an embarrassment for Texans.  His economic record in Texas is more smoke and mirrors than enlightened policy. And whether or not it is "fair", America is simply not ready to elect another Texas governor for the Presidency. Perry is a political sleazeball who got this far by riding GWB's coat tails.  The majority of Texans with voting rights may like him but Americans in general won't.  Not for long at least.

Now that he has thrown his wannabe cowboy hat into the ring, look for journalists everywhere to go about digging up all sorts of unhelpful and embarrassing quotes and policies from Rick Perry to expose him as the far right wing candidate that he truly is. And look for Perry and his staff to spin in overdrive the next few months trying to explain away his extremism already out there in the public record.  In calculus, the inflection point is the spot where the curve changes from having a positive slope to a negative slope.  The news that Perry is leading the GOP polls will be the inflection point in this race.  His numbers may still climb for a while, but the slope of his poll numbers is approaching zero and is on its way to negative territory.

I have pointed out before that in order to win Primary elections a candidate has to appeal to the fringes of their party, but in order to win the General election, the candidate has to switch up and appeal to the centrists in both parties and Rick Perry, while attractive to RWNJ's,  has no chance of attracting the centrists from either party. If the GOPers make him the nominee, it will assure a second Obama Presidency.

Jon Huntsman is the only GOP candidate who could potentially win the General election.  That is if he doesn't cozy up to far right to win the nomination.  He ought to be distancing himself from the radicals in the Tea Party because that is really his only chance of winning the nomination.  Let the kooky kandidates fight over the Tea drinkers.    He can win the nomination with the support of the rational, centrist GOPers.

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