Monday, January 19, 2015

From the "I told you so" file in the Pathteacher archives

A couple years ago in January 2013, I looked into the headlines of the day and saw the oil glut building.  I was off on how soon the glut would arrive and bring the steep drop in prices, but I was pretty sure it was coming. This is a good example of how underlying trends for supply and demand determine where a market is headed, not any special algorithms for deciphering the day to day up and down flocktuations of the market from the herd of traders trying to make money on the noise.  

First, here is a 5-year trend for the price of crude oil.  The article was written in January 2013 when oil was hovering around $110 per barrel.

From the Archives:    In 2013 economic growth will be fueled by lower oil prices. 

" There are many factors that affect economic growth and among them is the price of oil.  Like it or not oil and gasoline are still the lifeblood of our economy.  The price of oil and gasoline are baked into the price of every consumer product on the shelves. Further, the more disposable income that consumers spend on gasoline, the less they will have to spend on other things.  
Cheaper gasoline will help promote economic recovery in the USA.  Cheap gasoline is a free market induced stimulus package for everyone. 
Here are a few different articles that help paint the picture of where the prices of oil and gasoline are heading in the USA... 
After linking to a few news stories about change in the supply and demand for the oil I wrote..  
 ..It is important to note that we are not just producing more oil here in the USA, we are also using less of it as well.  A glut in the market is not out of the question and if and when that happens we will see a substantial drop in oil prices.  The fools who warned the world that oil was headed for $200 per barrel failed to acknowledge that before the price could climb that high, the world economy would collapse and Exxon would find it difficult to give oil away.
 Those pesky self-correction factors..
Someday I may have enough confidence in my predictions to actually invest in my own recommendations.

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